By 2030, there will be a large excess demand for skilled workers in the Danish labor market. Conversely, there will be an oversupply of unskilled workers and people with medium and long higher education. Specifically, our study shows that:
- For skilled workers there will be an excess demand for all educational groups except Business and Administration. The largest excess, measured in numbers, is expected to be in the field of Social and Health Care, where an excess demand of 25,000 workers by 2030 is expected.
- For persons with a short higher education the mismatch is expected to be relatively modest. The largest mismatch for this educational level is expected to be within Social Sciences (e.g., Marketing Management) with an excess supply of 6,000 persons in 2030.
- For persons with a medium-term higher education our study predicts a substantial oversupply within several educational groups. The largest mismatch is within the field of Learning (e.g., primary and middle school teachers) with a projected excess supply of 22,000 persons in 2030.
- For persons with a long higher education the results are more ambiguous. On the one hand, our study projects an excess demand for persons within Social Sciences (16,000 persons) and Engineering and IT (13,000 persons) by 2030. On the other hand, our study predicts an excess demand for persons within Language, culture and theology (15,000 persons) and Nature and agriculture (12,000 persons).
The study is commissioned by Danske Gymnasier and IDA.
Learn more about the study
HBS Economics and IRIS Group (2021): "Mismatch på det danske arbejdsmarked i 2030"