Evaluation of the warning effort in 2020

med No Comments

To ensure a quick and active effort in the event of major redundancies, which are of great importance to the local area, job centers can receive grants to local initiatives from the so-called warning pool (varslingspujle). As a result of the consequences of the corona crises for e.g., the aviation industry, the use of the warning pool increased significantly in 2020. In 2020, about DKK 95 million was paid out to local initiatives from the warning pool. In comparison, this figure was about DKK 16 million in 2019.

In this study, BDO Denmark and HBS Economics evaluate the warning effort (varslingsindsatsen) in 2020.

The main results of the evaluation are:

  • There is generally great support for the scheme among both job centers and companies.
  • The participants in the warning effort are predominantly men. A quarter of the participants are unskilled, and 41% have a background as skilled.
  • The effort contributes specially to upskilling and industry change. Only 5 per cent of the participants state that they have received job placement as part of the effort.
  • An impact analysis shows that the employment level is lower among participants in the effort three months after resigning from the company, compared with a control group. However, the effect result is associated with uncertainty due to methodological reservations.
  • The administration of the effort is generally flexible but includes many actors and process steps. There is a heterogeneous practice in recording and monitoring the activities of the effort.

Based on the results, it is recommended, among other things, to strengthen the use of job-oriented activities in the warning effort and look at the administration of the scheme.

The evaluation is based on quantitative register data, a population survey, and a comprehensive qualitative data material from interviews.

The study is commissioned by The Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment

Learn more about the evaluation

HBS Economics (2021): "Evaluering af varslingsindsatsen i 2020"